How To Evaluate a Good Stock Market Timing System
Copyright 2006 Equitrend, Inc.
No matter what investment discipline you use, there are three important variables for measuring your success - peak-to-valley drawdown, beta, reward/risk ratio. The first and most important factor is your measure of risk. Performance volatility is a measure of the variability of an investment's rate of return.
Specifically, it is the standard deviation of the sample set of monthly returns that have been observed for the investment over the interval being considered. A simple way to measure a good stock market timing system is to calculate the largest peak-to-valley drawdown that has or would have occurred in the last five years. This drawdown is your measure of risk.
Second, is your beta to the overall market. Beta is an important variable that measures portfolio or timing system volatility as compared to an index. Most Betas are calculated based on the S&P 500 index. A beta of one tells you that the system has the same volatility (i.e. risk) as the S&P 500 index. A beta of two tells you that the system has twice the volatility as the S&P 500 index.
By actively managing your money, your stock market timing system should allow you to reduce the beta of your portfolio as compared to the index you are trading and substantially improve your returns over time.
Third, is your reward/risk ratio, which calculates your reward as compared to your risk. In order to calculate this, you need to know your average rate of return. A rule of thumb is that your return should be at least twice as large as your risk. For example, if your largest peak-to-valley drawdown percentage over the last five years is 15%, your average rate of return should be at least 30%. In other words, your reward/risk ratio (30%/15% = 2) should be 2 or greater.
The best stock market timing system for you will depend a lot on your personality, specifically your tolerance for risk. You might think a trend timing system that averages 80% is a great system, but what if I told you that system had a risk potential of 35%?
Most people cannot tolerate a system that decreases their investment capital more than 20%. Your tolerance and ability to accept risk should help you identify a stock market timing system that's right for you.
There are only a few systems available that really work. Most come and go like mayflies on a warm summer's day. When evaluating a timing system, it's important to consider all of the above factors plus whether or not the system has survived and prospered over at least a five year period. If they've made it through the last five to six years, you've likely found a good stock market timing system.
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John M. McClure is CEO and President of EquiTrend Inc., a stock market timing system that averages 42% profits per year. Mr. McClure is also a Registered Investment Advisor and President of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.
http://www.equitrend.com
American Express – A Unique Type Of Credit Card
American Express, or AMEX, is one of the most recognisable names in the financial world. What many customers who have MasterCard or Visa credit cards in their wallet are interested in, is what is the difference between these two companies and American Express. Well the difference is quite simple.
MasterCard and Visa are both simply payment methods. They allow locations to accept payment using their system. They do not however, issue any credit cards of their own. For this they rely on their partnerships with thousands of banks worldwide who will issue credit cards, provide the credit necessary, and charge clients interest and give them rewards. None of your credit card bill goes to Visa or MasterCard. It all goes to the bank that provided the card. This bank also sets your interest rate, gives you rewards, offers you zero per cent balance transfers, the works.
Visa and MasterCard make their money by charging the retailer a fee for using their payment system, and also sometimes by charging your bank for issuing the card. None of this effects you directly however.
American Express is a very different arrangement. Not only do they have their own payment system, but they also issue their cards directly to customers. So they are running the whole show. If a card says American Express on it, you know instantly who issued it, what payments system it utilises and everything else about the card.
While Visa and MasterCard are probably far more prevalent payment methods worldwide, American Express is rapidly expanding its network. Both Visa and MasterCard are accepted at over twenty million locations worldwide and these are spread around over one hundred and fifty countries. This makes them truly global payment methods. American Express still lacks this degree of saturation. There are places in the world where Visa and MasterCard are accepted widely but American Express is more difficult to use.
However, American Express has its own advantages, particularly for customers in Europe and North America. In these countries the card is accepted widely. The company also offers very attractive credit cards. They have good rates, good reward schemes and good customer service. If you want a card guaranteed to give you a high standard of service, and that still carries a little bit of extra exclusivity now that Visa and MasterCard are so prevalent, then American Express, or AMEX, is a good safe choice.
Joe Kenny writes for the Card Guide, a Uk based credit cards site, visit today for a balance transfer credit cards and start clearing credit card debt today.
Visit today: http://www.cardguide.co.uk/
How Can You Keep Your Credit Card Safe?
Ensuring that your credit card is safe is probably one of the first things you need to learn when you first get a credit card for yourself. Making sure you have followed the guidelines given here will help you keep the credit card safe from misuse to a vast extent. Of course we have hackers who have risen above all these precautions, but we can try our best to keep some of these factors in place, so as to ensure a trouble free credit card usage. As they say, it is better to be safe rather than sorry.
One of the first things you can do when you receive your credit card is to sign your card. As soon as you receive it, sign on the space given at the back of the card. This is but a basic precaution to ensure that no one steals it and uses it before you can sign on it.
When you visit an ATM, ensure that no one is hanging about the place or peering above your shoulder. They could easily get your PIN and then there is nothing you can do. When you are punching in your PIN make sure no can follow your finger movements and thereby find out your PIN.
Always, always, take your receipt with you when you leave the ATM or shred it thoroughly before you leave it in the dustbin. You must always ensure that you leave the ATM only after the screen returns to the original and not before you have closed the operation entirely. You are bound to encounter miscreants waiting for such lapses on a consumer's part and hack into their account.
Never ever give your credit card number to anyone unless you made the call. When use a cordless phone when you reveal your credit card number to a merchant establishment. There are radio scanners that enable miscreants to overhear your conversation and then you have a security breach. You might find a call soon after you give your card number asking you to repeat the number or they might even say they seem to be experiencing some problem and you need to repeat the number. All such calls are spell danger and are best avoided. Call your contact at the store immediately and verify the call.
Ensure that you get your card back after a purchase is made and always keep a list of your credit cards with their numbers and toll-free numbers to ensure safe transactions in case you lose your card. Check your statement when you get it. You might have been billed wrongly. Call and notify the bank or card issuer immediately to avoid having to pay for something you have not purchased.
Jim is the owner of capital loan , and black horse limited uk websites. Jim welcomes you to stop by our site today and see what we can offer.
No matter what investment discipline you use, there are three important variables for measuring your success - peak-to-valley drawdown, beta, reward/risk ratio. The first and most important factor is your measure of risk. Performance volatility is a measure of the variability of an investment's rate of return.
Specifically, it is the standard deviation of the sample set of monthly returns that have been observed for the investment over the interval being considered. A simple way to measure a good stock market timing system is to calculate the largest peak-to-valley drawdown that has or would have occurred in the last five years. This drawdown is your measure of risk.
Second, is your beta to the overall market. Beta is an important variable that measures portfolio or timing system volatility as compared to an index. Most Betas are calculated based on the S&P 500 index. A beta of one tells you that the system has the same volatility (i.e. risk) as the S&P 500 index. A beta of two tells you that the system has twice the volatility as the S&P 500 index.
By actively managing your money, your stock market timing system should allow you to reduce the beta of your portfolio as compared to the index you are trading and substantially improve your returns over time.
Third, is your reward/risk ratio, which calculates your reward as compared to your risk. In order to calculate this, you need to know your average rate of return. A rule of thumb is that your return should be at least twice as large as your risk. For example, if your largest peak-to-valley drawdown percentage over the last five years is 15%, your average rate of return should be at least 30%. In other words, your reward/risk ratio (30%/15% = 2) should be 2 or greater.
The best stock market timing system for you will depend a lot on your personality, specifically your tolerance for risk. You might think a trend timing system that averages 80% is a great system, but what if I told you that system had a risk potential of 35%?
Most people cannot tolerate a system that decreases their investment capital more than 20%. Your tolerance and ability to accept risk should help you identify a stock market timing system that's right for you.
There are only a few systems available that really work. Most come and go like mayflies on a warm summer's day. When evaluating a timing system, it's important to consider all of the above factors plus whether or not the system has survived and prospered over at least a five year period. If they've made it through the last five to six years, you've likely found a good stock market timing system.
------
John M. McClure is CEO and President of EquiTrend Inc., a stock market timing system that averages 42% profits per year. Mr. McClure is also a Registered Investment Advisor and President of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.
http://www.equitrend.com
American Express – A Unique Type Of Credit Card
American Express, or AMEX, is one of the most recognisable names in the financial world. What many customers who have MasterCard or Visa credit cards in their wallet are interested in, is what is the difference between these two companies and American Express. Well the difference is quite simple.
MasterCard and Visa are both simply payment methods. They allow locations to accept payment using their system. They do not however, issue any credit cards of their own. For this they rely on their partnerships with thousands of banks worldwide who will issue credit cards, provide the credit necessary, and charge clients interest and give them rewards. None of your credit card bill goes to Visa or MasterCard. It all goes to the bank that provided the card. This bank also sets your interest rate, gives you rewards, offers you zero per cent balance transfers, the works.
Visa and MasterCard make their money by charging the retailer a fee for using their payment system, and also sometimes by charging your bank for issuing the card. None of this effects you directly however.
American Express is a very different arrangement. Not only do they have their own payment system, but they also issue their cards directly to customers. So they are running the whole show. If a card says American Express on it, you know instantly who issued it, what payments system it utilises and everything else about the card.
While Visa and MasterCard are probably far more prevalent payment methods worldwide, American Express is rapidly expanding its network. Both Visa and MasterCard are accepted at over twenty million locations worldwide and these are spread around over one hundred and fifty countries. This makes them truly global payment methods. American Express still lacks this degree of saturation. There are places in the world where Visa and MasterCard are accepted widely but American Express is more difficult to use.
However, American Express has its own advantages, particularly for customers in Europe and North America. In these countries the card is accepted widely. The company also offers very attractive credit cards. They have good rates, good reward schemes and good customer service. If you want a card guaranteed to give you a high standard of service, and that still carries a little bit of extra exclusivity now that Visa and MasterCard are so prevalent, then American Express, or AMEX, is a good safe choice.
Joe Kenny writes for the Card Guide, a Uk based credit cards site, visit today for a balance transfer credit cards and start clearing credit card debt today.
Visit today: http://www.cardguide.co.uk/
How Can You Keep Your Credit Card Safe?
Ensuring that your credit card is safe is probably one of the first things you need to learn when you first get a credit card for yourself. Making sure you have followed the guidelines given here will help you keep the credit card safe from misuse to a vast extent. Of course we have hackers who have risen above all these precautions, but we can try our best to keep some of these factors in place, so as to ensure a trouble free credit card usage. As they say, it is better to be safe rather than sorry.
One of the first things you can do when you receive your credit card is to sign your card. As soon as you receive it, sign on the space given at the back of the card. This is but a basic precaution to ensure that no one steals it and uses it before you can sign on it.
When you visit an ATM, ensure that no one is hanging about the place or peering above your shoulder. They could easily get your PIN and then there is nothing you can do. When you are punching in your PIN make sure no can follow your finger movements and thereby find out your PIN.
Always, always, take your receipt with you when you leave the ATM or shred it thoroughly before you leave it in the dustbin. You must always ensure that you leave the ATM only after the screen returns to the original and not before you have closed the operation entirely. You are bound to encounter miscreants waiting for such lapses on a consumer's part and hack into their account.
Never ever give your credit card number to anyone unless you made the call. When use a cordless phone when you reveal your credit card number to a merchant establishment. There are radio scanners that enable miscreants to overhear your conversation and then you have a security breach. You might find a call soon after you give your card number asking you to repeat the number or they might even say they seem to be experiencing some problem and you need to repeat the number. All such calls are spell danger and are best avoided. Call your contact at the store immediately and verify the call.
Ensure that you get your card back after a purchase is made and always keep a list of your credit cards with their numbers and toll-free numbers to ensure safe transactions in case you lose your card. Check your statement when you get it. You might have been billed wrongly. Call and notify the bank or card issuer immediately to avoid having to pay for something you have not purchased.
Jim is the owner of capital loan , and black horse limited uk websites. Jim welcomes you to stop by our site today and see what we can offer.
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